Equities Stay Bullish

The Nigerian stock market continued its upward momentum for the fourth consecutive week, demonstrating investor confidence despite mixed signals in liquidity and currency markets. The NGX All-Share Index (NGXASI) rose by 1.02%, closing at 143,584.04 points. This performance added over ₦1 trillion in market capitalization, pushing the year-to-date (YTD) return to 39.50%, a strong indicator of sustained bullish sentiment.

Investor appetite was particularly strong in mid- and large-cap stocks, with notable gains in energy, banking, and consumer goods. The market breadth—an indicator of overall sentiment—improved to 1.17x, meaning more stocks gained than lost, a healthy sign of broad-based participation.

• • Top Gainers: ETERNA (+32.80%) surged on strong oil sector momentum.
• • ENAMELWA (+20.94%) and PZ (+20.87%) benefited from consumer sector rotation.
• • EUNISELL and ARADEL also posted double-digit gains, reflecting renewed interest in industrial and energy plays.

• • Top Losers: JBERGER (-17.79%) led the decline, likely due to profit-taking after previous rallies.
• • INTENEGINS, MANSARD, and UPL saw steep drops, possibly reflecting sector-specific headwinds or earnings disappointments.

• Most Traded Stocks: UBA, ACCESSCORP, GTCO, ZENITHBANK, and ELLAHLAKES dominated both volume and value charts, underscoring their role as liquidity anchors in the market.

Currency & Money Market

The Naira strengthened across both official and parallel markets, Meanwhile, interbank rates remained elevated, signalling tight liquidity conditions.

• • The appreciation of the Naira may tapper FX interventions or policy adjustments.
• • Elevated lending rates suggest banks are cautious, possibly due to upcoming regulatory changes or liquidity constraints.

Bond yields declined slightly, indicating bullish sentiment in the fixed income space. Investors are positioning for reinvestment opportunities and anticipating smoother operations under the upcoming CBN reforms.

• • Demand for longer-term bonds like MAY-33 and FEB-31 reflects investor preference for locking in higher yields before potential
• • GDP growth remains solid, but inflation is still elevated, which may limit the CBN's flexibility on interest rates.
• • FX reserves are stable, but declining oil prices could pose risks in the coming weeks.

Markets Defy Political Turbulence; Oil and Dollar Slide

U.S. Shutdown & Fed Outlook

Despite the U.S. government shutdown, equity markets rallied as investors bet on a Fed rate cut to cushion the economy. With official data releases frozen, traders relied on alternative indicators showing labour market weakness.

• • Rate Cut Odds:
•   • October: 96.2% chance of a 0.25% cut
•   • December: 86.3% chance of another cut

• • Equities Rally:
•   • S&P 500: +1.1%
•   • DOW & NASDAQ: +1.3%
•   • Technical target: 6922.53, resistance near 7000

• • The Fed is likely to prioritize employment over inflation in the short term, especially with signs of economic cooling.
• • Global equities are buoyed by expectations of looser monetary policy.
• • Frontier and emerging markets are showing resilience despite external headwinds.